The future is a riddle — Будущее это метод

The future is a riddle - Будущее это метод

There have always been many hunters to predict the future: fortune tellers, astrologers, palmists and other Nostradamuses. In the same series, science fiction writers, utopian socialists. Is it possible to predict the future in a scientific way?

In reality, Marxists tried to convince us for almost a century and a half. And they often talked not only about what awaits humanity, but even called the dates when there will be dramatic changes in the social structure. Their predictions were not justified. Were these the mistakes of individuals, or was the approach to designing the distant future itself flawed in principle?

An interesting answer to this question was given by the German philosopher W. Wundt, whose opinion was fully shared by our brilliant economist N. D. Kondratiev. The essence of Wundt’s idea is that a person, setting a goal and achieving it, meets with environmental resistance and, overcoming it, is forced to make adjustments to his plans or change them altogether. In other words, the result of conscious activity never coincides with the plan. Wundt called it the principle of> heterogeneity of goals. It is this principle that prevents the ability to look far enough ahead.

Even more obvious is WundtТs correctness in predicting the development of scientific knowledge. Could one have predicted the creation of the theory of relativity or the discovery of the chain reaction of uranium fission? Could it have been predicted that Bill Gates would invent an operating system for a personal computer? But these discoveries and inventions radically changed human civilization.

Familiarity with the work of modern forecasters constantly makes sure Wundt is right: the future is fundamentally unknowable and unpredictable.

Другие английские тексты для докладов, курсовых по этой категории:

My first flight by plane — Мой первый полет на самолете I'll tell you about my first flight by plane. To say that I was terribly afraid, it's like not saying anything. The flight was early, so the rise in 3...
Holidays in Space — Праздники в космосе It's a long time since men last went to the Moon; but  there are now people living all the time in the Russian space station Mir. Today, space is just...
The engineer — Инженер The concept of "engineer" originated in Italy in the Middle Ages. At first, it was called so gunsmiths and control of military vehicles. To date, the ...
Car in our life — Машина в нашей жизни Today it is impossible to imagine our life without road transport. Every day we go to school, parents to work. A car has long been no longer a luxury,...